Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for September and Q3/2026

BOT Press Release No. 42/2026 | 30 Oct 2026

Summary
  • The Thai economy improved overall in September from the previous month, driven by continued growth in merchandise exports and private investment, supported by the global technology and artificial intelligence (AI) cycle and investment in data centers in Thailand. Meanwhile, tourism-related activities weakened, in line with declines in both Thai and foreign tourist arrivals. Private consumption moderated, mainly in the services category, as elevated cost of living continued to weigh on consumer spending.

  • The Thai economy improved in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, driven mainly by continued growth in merchandise exports as supported by the global AI cycle. Domestic demand also improved, driven by both  private investment, particularly in machinery and equipment, as well as higher private consumption, partly supported by government measures. However, tourism-related activities softened in line with lower foreign tourist arrivals, particularly from short-haul markets.
     
  • Headline inflation increased in September, driven by higher energy prices in line with rising global oil prices following renewed tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, fresh food and core inflation remained broadly stable from the previous month.

  • Key issues to monitor: (1) the durability of the global technology and AI cycle, (2) developments in geopolitical conflicts and international trade protectionist policies, (3) the recovery of the tourism sector, and (4) the impact of flooding and El Niño.
09/2026

Details of the economic conditions are as follows:

The Thai economy improved overall in September from the previous month. Merchandise exports excluding gold increased markedly, driven by electronics exports amid the global technology and AI cycle. Private investment also accelerated significantly, in line with higher imports of data processing equipment related to data centers, which was also reflected in a corresponding increase in manufacturing production. In the tourism sector, foreign tourism receipts increased from the previous month, supported by longer average stays, despite a decline in foreign tourist arrivals, particularly from short-haul markets where demand weakened following the end of the summer school holiday period. Higher travel costs amid rising oil prices also weighed on demand. Meanwhile, private consumption moderated, mainly due to weaker services consumption, particularly spending on hotels and restaurants, reflecting more cautious consumer spending due to elevated cost of living. As a result, tourism-related services activity also slowed. Government spending contracted, following lower disbursements by both the central government and state-owned enterprises.

 

On the economic stability front, headline inflation increased from the previous month, driven by higher energy prices following increases in domestic retail oil prices, in line with rising global crude oil prices amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, fresh food inflation and core inflation remained broadly stable from the previous month. The current account registered a deficit, mainly due to a deficit in the services, income, and transfers balance. Overall labor market conditions remained stable. However, the increase in the number of unemployment benefit claimants warrants close monitoring.

 

Quarterly Review of the Thai Economy

Third Quarter of 2026

 

The Thai economy improved in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, mainly driven by the continued growth in merchandise exports excluding gold, as supported by the global technology and AI cycle. Domestic demand also improved, reflecting a significant increase in private investment, particularly in data center investment, as well as higher private consumption across almost all categories. In particular, spending on durable goods increased in line with higher electric vehicle sales, while spending on non-durable goods and services received temporary support from government measures. In line with these developments, there was also a corresponding increase in manufacturing production. Service sector activity edged up slightly, driven mainly by trade and transportation activities. Government spending also expanded from the same period last year, reflecting higher disbursements by both the central government and state-owned enterprises. However, tourism activity moderated, as foreign tourist arrivals declined, particularly from short-haul tourists as demand weakened amid higher travel costs. Meanwhile, foreign tourism receipts remained broadly stable, supported by a longer average length of stay. 

 

On the economic stability front, headline inflation declined from the previous quarter, driven by lower energy prices in line with the temporary decline in global crude oil prices. Meanwhile, fresh food prices increased, reflecting higher meat prices due to adverse weather conditions and rising production costs. Core inflation also increased, mainly due to higher prices of prepared food, reflecting cost pass-through by businesses. The current account returned to a surplus from a deficit in the previous quarter, mainly due to an improvement in the trade balance. Regarding labor market conditions, overall employment in the social security system improved slightly from the previous quarter. However, the rising share of unemployment benefit claimants warrants close monitoring, including the impact of higher costs stemming from the war and intensified competition from imported goods.

Press Release Documents

 

1. Table Attached 1

2. Table Attached 2

 

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Economic and Monetary Conditions