The Thai economy is projected to expand by 2.2, 1.5, and 2.3 percent in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The economy in the second half of this year has slowed down due to temporary factors in the manufacturing sector, a decrease in short-haul tourists, and flooding in the south that is projected to have a prolonged impact until early next year. For 2026, the economy is expected to soften relative to this year due to private consumption slowdown in line with moderation in income merchandise exports which will be affected by U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, tourism is projected to gradually recover. The economy will recover in 2027 but will remain below potential, driven mainly by the services sector, with exports and the manufacturing sector continuing to face intense competition. Going forward, it is necessary to monitor additional risks from U.S. trade policies, delays in the 2027 budget process, and business sector adaptation, particularly for SMEs that continue to face competition and limited access to credit. The Committee views that Thailand’s low economic growth is partly a result of structural factors. It is therefore necessary to integrate policies from multiple fronts to enhance the competitiveness of the business sector.

(Forecast as of 17 December 2025)