The Thai economy is likely to slow down and faces increasing downside risks owing to global trade policies and lower foreign tourist arrivals. Going forward, the impact of global trade tensions will become more evident in the second half of 2025 but still with high uncertainty. Therefore, the Committee assesses the growth and inflation outlook under various scenarios. For instance, if trade negotiations are prolonged and U.S. tariffs remain close to current rates (reference scenario: lower tariffs), the Thai economy would grow by approximately 2 percent in 2025. Moreover, if trade tensions intensify and U.S. tariffs are set at higher rates (alternative scenario: higher tariffs), the Thai economy is projected to grow at around 1.3 percent in 2025. The resulting outturn depends on policy responses and adjustments from major economies. It is therefore crucial to closely monitor global trade developments and their impacts on the Thai economy. Mitigating the effects of trade shocks will require a combination of complementary policies to enhance the competitiveness of the private sector. (Forecast as of 30 April 2025)