The Thai economy is projected to expand by 2.3 and 1.7 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively.[i] This year’s economic growth figure of 2.3 percent is partly due to stronger-than-expected outturn in the first quarter and leading economic indicators in the second quarter. Export growth, particularly in electronics and front-loaded goods to the U.S., has supported manufacturing and related-service sectors. However, looking ahead, the economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, as merchandise exports are facing headwinds from U.S. tariffs and private consumption will moderate in line with weakening income and consumer confidence. The projected number of tourist arrivals is revised down, although tourism receipts continue to expand due to higher spending per visitor. Meanwhile, certain business sectors are facing pressures from intensified competition of import flooding and shifting consumer behavior. (Forecast as of 25 June 2025)

__________

[i] Under the assumption that U.S. reciprocal tariff is applied to Thailand at the rate of 18 percent (half of the announced rate on 2 April 2025) and 10 percent for other countries.