Private Consumption Index (%YoY)
1.4%
May 2025
Thai Economy
conditions • indicators • outlook
Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for May 2025
The Thai economy softened slightly from the previous month due to a slowdown in activity across manufacturing, trade, and tourism sectors. Manufacturing production declined, attributed to prior inventory replenishment and the temporary closure of an oil refinery for maintenance. Tourism receipts dropped, primarily due to a decline in long-haul travelers, who typically have higher spending per trip. Private investment dropped after accelerating in the previous month. Private consumption remained stable, supported by a continued surge in consumption of durables, although consumption of services declined. Merchandise exports rose sharply, led by electronics exports driven by increasing global demand and accelerated shipments during the grace period. Government spending contracted in both current and capital expenditures, reflecting a high base effect from last year following accelerated disbursement after the enactment of the Budget Act, B.E. 2567.
Economic Outlook
The Thai economy is projected to expand by 2.3 and 1.7 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively.[i] This year’s economic growth figure of 2.3 percent is partly due to stronger-than-expected outturn in the first quarter and leading economic indicators in the second quarter. Export growth, particularly in electronics and front-loaded goods to the U.S., has supported manufacturing and related-service sectors. However, looking ahead, the economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, as merchandise exports are facing headwinds from U.S. tariffs and private consumption will moderate in line with weakening income and consumer confidence. The projected number of tourist arrivals is revised down, although tourism receipts continue to expand due to higher spending per visitor. Meanwhile, certain business sectors are facing pressures from intensified competition of import flooding and shifting consumer behavior. (Forecast as of 25 June 2025)
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[i] Under the assumption that U.S. reciprocal tariff is applied to Thailand at the rate of 18 percent (half of the announced rate on 2 April 2025) and 10 percent for other countries.
Economic Publications
Report on Business Sentiment Index
Business Outlook Report
Credit Conditions Report
Key Economic and Financial Statistics
