Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for September and Q3/2025
BOT Press Release No. 40/2025 | 31 Oct 2025
- The Thai economy softened in the third quarter but showed signs of recovery towards the end of the quarter. In September, economic activity picked up, driven by a rebound in manufacturing, rising merchandise exports, and increased foreign tourism receipts. However, domestic demand moderated, with both private consumption and investment softened.
- Manufacturing output expanded, driven by the resumption of petroleum and beverage production after temporary shutdowns. Automobile production also increased, particularly in the electronic vehicle (EV) segment.
- Merchandise exports increased, led by strong growth in electronics. However, exports to the U.S. slowed across several categories due to reciprocal tariff measures.
- The number of foreign tourists and related receipts increased, particularly among Malaysian and Indian visitors, supported by long holidays and launch of new flight routes.
- Headline inflation was negative in September, primarily due to falling energy and raw food prices. Labor market conditions remained stable. The current account posted a surplus, driven mainly by a trade surplus.
- Key issues to monitor: (1) the recovery of manufacturing production, (2) the impact of U.S. tariff measures on Thai exports, (3) developments in the tourism sector, and (4) the impact of government stimulus and the rebound of domestic purchasing power.
The overall Thai economy softened in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. On the supply side, economic activity slowed due to a decline in manufacturing output, reflecting temporary production halts in certain products, which also dampened related service sector activities. On the demand side, domestic demand moderated, particularly in private investment, while foreign tourism receipts declined. In contrast, merchandise exports rose, driven by good performance in the electronics sector.
Compared to the previous month, the economy showed improvement in September. Manufacturing output rose as temporary disruption gradually subsided, which in turn supported stronger service sector activity, particularly in trade and transport. External demand expanded, reflected in higher tourist arrivals and increased receipts, especially from short-haul travelers. Merchandise exports, excluding gold, continued to grow, fueled by strong demand for electronics. However, domestic demand softened, as both private investment and consumption moderated.
On the economic stability front, headline inflation was negative in the third quarter, mainly due to falling raw food and energy prices, while core inflation remained in positive territory. Labor market conditions were broadly stable, and the current account recorded a surplus. In September, headline inflation was slightly less negative than the previous month, the impact of last year’s high energy prices faded. Core inflation remained positive but edged lower, partly due to promotional campaigns on food delivery and personal care items. Labor market conditions continued to hold steady, and the current account registered a surplus, supported by a strong trade balance.
