Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for February 2026
BOT Press Release No. 12/2026 | 31 Mar 2026
- The Thai economy in February softened from the previous month, with activity moderating on both the demand and supply sides.
- On the demand side, merchandise exports excluding gold declined in some categories following a strong expansion in the previous month, partly due to the unwinding of temporary factors. Tourism receipts also declined in line with lower foreign tourist arrivals. Private consumption also softened, after earlier front-loaded purchases of electric vehicles ahead of the expiry of the EV 3.0 scheme. However, private investment continued to grow. Government spending also expanded, driven by increases in both current and capital expenditures of the central government.
- On the supply side, overall activity moderated, reflecting declines in both services and manufacturing production.
- Headline inflation turned more negative, mainly due to lower food prices, while core inflation remained positive and broadly stable compared to the previous month.
- Key issues to monitor: (1) developments in the Middle East conflict, (2) the adaptability of businesses and households, including government measures related to higher energy prices, and (3) changes in U.S. trade policy.
Thailand’s economy in February softened from the previous month, reflecting weaker momentum in several key economic activities. Merchandise exports excluding gold declined, particularly petroleum and gems and jewelry, following a sharp acceleration in the previous month driven by temporary factors. Tourism receipts also decreased in line with a decline in long-haul tourist arrivals, after earlier strong inflows, including fewer tourists from the Middle East and Malaysia, partly due to the Ramadan period. Private consumption softened, mainly due to lower spending on durable goods, after accelerated purchases ahead of the expiration of the EV 3.0 scheme. Manufacturing production also decreased, particularly in petroleum due to scheduled refinery maintenance, and in electrical appliances amid high competition. These developments resulted in a contraction in related service sector activities, including trade, and hotels and restaurants. However, private investment continued to improve, driven mainly by investment in machinery and equipment. Government spending expanded from both current and capital expenditures of the central government.
On the economic stability front, headline inflation turned more negative, mainly due to lower fresh food prices, while energy prices remained stable. Core inflation remained positive and broadly stable from the previous month, as lower prices of food ingredients and prepared foods are offset by the increase in personal care prices. The current account recorded a surplus, mainly driven by a trade surplus.
